Last year basketball fans missed out on one of the most electric moments in sports, the NCAA tournament bracket-busting upset. Even though there won’t be as many fans losing their minds in the stadium, there are plenty of low-seeded teams set to make a cinderella run, and that all starts with a first-round upset.
The first team that I will put on an upset watch are the Villanova Wildcats. They are set to take on Winthrop in the last game Friday night at 8:55. Nova has won two of the past four national titles and seems to reload with veteran talent that puts them as favorites to win the title year after year. This year was no different, but they lost their starting point guard, Collin Gillespie, at the end of the season. He was the orchestrator of their offense, and since he went down, the Wildcats are 0-2 in their games without him.
Winthrop played in the weak Big South but certainly earned their twelve seed, going 23-1 this season and taking care of business in their conference tournament. The Eagles are in the top twenty in minutes continuity, which means that their players have tons of experiencing playing with each other over the years. They are led by star guard Adonis Arms, who is a 6’6 guard who plays under control but is long enough to make impact plays in the open court. Don’t be surprised to see Winthrop pull off the upset with their veteran roster. It would be a classic 5-12 upset, and nothing would make America feel more normal than a former national champion getting knocked off in the first round by a mid-major school.
Another 5-12 upset that I would not be surprised to see go down is the Georgetown Hoyas taking down the five-seeded Colorado Buffaloes. The Hoyas are coming off of one of the most improbable Big East Tournament runs of all-time, starting on Wednesday as an eight-seed and playing and winning four games in four days. They are led by former New York Knicks legend Patrick Ewing, and this team has a team of destiny feel after legendary Georgetown coach John Thompson passed away earlier this year.
On that Wednesday, when Georgetown played in the first round at MSG, security asked for Ewing’s credentials. This made him angry, and rightfully so, as he practically built the legacy of that arena. Colorado played in the PAC-12, so it isn’t easy to get a read on just how reliable they will be in a prime-time situation. Georgetown is the hottest team in the country, and with Patrick Ewing on the bench, it is hard not to see Georgetown making some noise in this tournament.
Mac McClung was a viral prospect in high school, throwing down showtime dunks night after night. His first college years in Georgetown did not go as planned, so he decided to transfer to Texas Tech this year, where he has seen immense success under head coach Chris Beard. They were in the stacked Big-12 and didn’t take a bad loss, with their only non-conference loss being to two-seed Houston early in the season. Texas Tech burned out in the first round of the Big-12 tournament and has no momentum going into the tournament. This is why I think they are vulnerable to an upset at the hands of Utah State.
Utah State has one of the best rim-protectors in the nation in Neemias Queta. If the Aggies can funnel the Red Raider’s offense towards Queta, and keep this affair low scoring, I think that the Aggies from the Mountain West could pull off the upset of the much more talented (on paper) Texas Tech team.
Kansas is a top seed almost every year, and this year was no different as they were able to nab a three seed. However, this is one of Bill Self’s weaker all-around teams, and we saw this earlier in the season when the Jayhawks were almost upset by North Dakota State. Kansas prides itself on defense, but this defense may be thrown out in their first-round matchup against Eastern Washington.
I think this because the Eagles in Cheney, WA, love to speed up games and take shots at the beginning of the shot clock. This type of play-style leaves their opponents shocked at times, and that is the big reason why they were able to win the Big Sky tournament. If they find themselves in the lead at the end of the game, we could see them come out victorious as they are calm under pressure at the free-throw line, shooting at the sixth-best rate in the entire country.
The last upset that I would not be surprised to see in the first round is Tom Izzo’s Michigan State squad to come in as an eleven seed and take down the 6th seeded BYU team. To get this done, they will have to beat UCLA on Thursday night in one of the first four games. I do not think this will be a problem, and if there is one thing that you don’t do as a basketball fan, it is to bet against Michigan State in March.
Michigan St. is putting together big wins at the right time, having knocked off Illinois, Ohio St., and Michigan since the 23rd of February. They are building momentum at the right time. Other than a slight mishap (with some shady officiating from Bo Boroski) against Maryland in the Big Ten tournament, there is no reason not to believe in this scrappy Spartans team that has been written off this entire year.
