Last year, basketball fans had to miss out on objectively the most entertaining stretch of basketball there is. When the NCAA Tournament was canceled last year, just days before selection Sunday, Americans everywhere missed out on first-round upsets, sleepers making the final four, and electric buzzer-beaters.
I would be lying if I said that after COVID shut down the world, I didn’t spend at least two or three days watching march madness highlights from the past 20 years. This is coming from a guy who almost strictly watches the NBA over College. I think that people should be able to appreciate the two very different styles of play. The NBA is a more polished product, and the players are much more skilled, but in College, a less talented team can will itself to victory through effort and leaving it all on the court.
That is what makes the tournament some of the most exciting weekends of basketball each year. No one has a clue what is going to happen, even though everyone convinces themselves that their bracket is going to be perfect. Every year less than 1% of people usually select the correct Final Four matchups. Anyone can win it all, but I will go through my top 8 teams that I think have a legitimate chance to go the distance and be the last team dancing.
My first two picks are chalky picks, but for a good reason. The Gonzaga Bulldogs come into the season undefeated and have everything you could want in a team to be successful in march. They have their young freshman star who will be a top draft pick in Jalen Suggs, and also experienced veterans in Cody Kispert, Drew Timme, and Joel Ayayi to stay calm under pressure. Head Coach Mark Few has taken the team deep into tournaments but can’t quite get over the hump and win a Championship. The Zags play in the somewhat weak WCC, but their non-conference schedule this year had some challenges that they took care of, such as contests against Kansas, Iowa, Virginia, and West Virginia, that they all took care of. They survived a test in the WCC tournament championship against BYU and are primed to make a deep run this year.
My next pick is the only other team discussed in the same league as Gonzaga, and that is the Baylor Bears. The Bears played in the absolutely stacked Big 12 this year and came out with only two losses, one being in the Big 12 tournament where Oklahoma State outlasted them in a track meet. Everyone on Baylor can shoot and what sticks out most when watching this team is their insane energy both on the court and from the bench that fuels the team to keep running and hitting their shots. Jared Butler is one of the most overlooked players in the country, and I think he will be a solid player in the NBA. He plays at his own pace and is a dog on defense and off the ball on offense. If Baylor can keep up their scorching hot three-point shooting, there may not be a single team in the tournament that can stop them.
My next two picks will also be teams from the Big 12. Every week these teams went through a gauntlet in their conference schedule, so they are battle-tested and will not be shocked by any lower-seeded team in the tournament. My first pick here is Oklahoma State. Their team is solid, but Cade Cunningham will be the player who determines this team’s success in the tournament. I think that he will handle the pressure because he has shown time and time again this year the ability to perform in the clutch. The Cowboys had 4 overtime games and were 4-0 in those games, mostly because Cunningham can take over a game and overwhelm oppositions with his ability to get off a shot whenever he wants or create easy buckets for his teammates in late-game situations. OK St. is a four seed in the tournament this year, and their road to the championship will not be easy, but the likely number one pick has what it takes to put the team on his back and carry them to victories.
The Texas Longhorns came out of the Big 12 Tournament victorious against Oklahoma State, and they are tough not to root for. Andrew Jones leads them, and if that name sounds familiar, that is because he is the player who battled through Leukemia a few years ago and returned to the court shortly after ending his sessions of chemotherapy. He is averaging 14.6 points per game this season, but the key to Texas’s success will be Jericho Sims. The 6’10 big man from Minneapolis has an insane motor on the court and unreal athleticism. On the court, Sims can’t help but remind me of great Texas big men of the past, such as Mo Bamba, Jarrett Allen, Myles Turner, and Jaxson Hayes. He has the big afro just like Allen and Hayes and jumps just as high as them. In the Big 12 title game, he had 21 points and 14 rebounds to lead the Longhorns to victory, and if he can continue to clean up everything for Shaka Smart’s squad, they could make a run deep into the tournament.
My first sleeper pick that has an outside chance at winning the title is the USC Trojans. Once again, the PAC-12 had another season where its teams cannibalized each other. Still, USC has arguably the second-best player in college basketball this season in Evan Mobley and a solid supporting cast around him, including his brother Isiah.
However well Mobley plays is how well the Trojans will perform. After strong outings in the PAC-12 tournament, Mobley has built up momentum and will look to lead the Trojans as a six seed past either Drake or Wichita State and then meet with Kansas in the second round. If they can upset a Kansas team with a banged-up David McCormack, we will hopefully be treated to a matchup of the two best big men in the country in Luka Garza and Evan Mobley.
Another underdog I could see making some noise and potentially winning the tournament is the LSU Tigers. LSU has talent all around, including Cam Thomas, who was one of the most prolific scorers in the country this season, averaging almost 23 points per game.
Thomas has unlimited range that opens up driving lanes for the other star of the team, Trendon Watford. He is an incredible one-on-one isolation player, which is vital in march when you need someone to put their head down and get to the basket when the shot clock runs down. LSU made a run to the SEC championship game where Watford scored 30 points and almost won the tournament for LSU on a last-second jumper, but his putback attempt came just short. If they win their first-round bout as a nine seed, they will have to face Michigan, but Michigan is without Isiah Livers for the tournament and could be susceptible to an upset.
Yet another chalky pick that I have in Illinois, who came out victorious in the gauntlet that was the Big Ten Tournament this year. The Illini have the most dynamic duo in the nation in Ayo Dosunmo and Kofi Cockburn. Ayo is the best pure scorer in the Big Ten, and Cockburn is an absolute physical specimen on the court who I am pretty sure can back down anyone in the entire country and get a two-handed dunk. The only things that prevent Illinois from making a run would be Cockburn getting too aggressive on defense and getting into early trouble. Their potential matchup in the second round leads me into the very last team that I think could win the title.
Everyone remembers Loyola Chicago’s run to the Final Four and Sister Jean cheering on the team from the sidelines in 2018. Well, Loyola is back this year with the best defense in the league, according to KenPom rankings. Defense truly can win championships, and the Ramblers still have two contributors who were on that Final Four team.
Cameron Krutwig looks like a normal dude who would play basketball at the YMCA and just back you down until you quit, but he is much more than that. He has incredible touch inside the lane, and if Loyola can win in the first round, they will be set with a matchup with Illinois in the second round, where we would get to see Cockburn and Krutwig matchup. Returning from 2018 is also Lucas Williamson, a defensive specialist who can be a nightmare for opponents’ guards. Loyola can slow any game down to their pace, and that, combined with their lockdown defense, makes them a threat to bust brackets everywhere.
